Looking in general at the film industries that have recovered at the box office since the pandemic, and those that are still struggling, it does seem that the more established production hubs of Hollywood, Bollywood and South Korea (I have an aversion to the term Hallyuwood) are having a tough time, whereas some industries that were less well known previously have come to the fore.
Hindi-language cinema, popularly known as Bollywood, may still be the biggest category at the Indian box office, but hasn’t returned to its former glory, and last year saw receipts decline by 13% to $543.9M (Rs46.8BN), according to a report from Mumbai-based analytics firm Ormax Media.
Two Telugu-language titles, Pushpa 2: The Rule and Kalki 2898 AD, topped India’s 2024 box office with $162m and $90m, respectively (see Top 15 chart below). The Hindi dubbed version of Pushpa 2: The Rule took $103m alone, out-grossing the biggest Hindi film of the year, horror comedy Stree 2, which took $80m.
Indeed, if the Hindi dubbed versions of South Indian films are discounted, Bollywood’s combined box office declined by a whopping 37% in 2024. Streamlined spoke to Ormax founder and CEO Shailesh Kapoor to find out what gives.
THE NUMBERS:
2024 India total box office: $1.38BN (Rs118.3BN)
YoY change: -3.2%
2024 India total admissions: 883 million
YoY change: -6.4%
Market share by language:
Hindi: 40%
Telugu: 20%
Tamil: 15%
Malayalam: 10%
Hollywood: 8%
Kannada: 3%
Increasingly Polarised Market
Following a relatively weak year, Hindi cinema’s share of the overall market decreased to 40% last year compared to 44% in 2023. Of course, the timing of releases impacts annual box office results, and Ormax Media CEO Shailesh Kapoor points out that 2023 was bookended by two big Hindi films – Pathaan, starring Shah Rukh Khan, and Animal with Ranbir Kapoor. If either of these titles had been released a few weeks on either side in 2022 or 2024, the results would have looked quite different.
Meanwhile, no huge tentpole style movies with major stars were released by the Hindi industry in 2024, even during the Eid and Diwali festival periods. The highest-grossing Hindi films, Stree 2 and Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3, are both horror comedies that are not cast dependent. Kapoor observes that this is partly due to hesitancy on the part of producers.
“What seems to be happening is that, because the past few years have been uncertain, there’s a lot of projects in pre-production, but they're not quite sure whether they want to make it, whether it’s viable theatrically or will eventually go to streaming,” Kapoor tells Streamlined. “And streaming platforms today are not really open to taking films which have not gone to theatres. They realise they’d have to market them, and they’d rather market series than films.”
On the other hand, the South Indian industries, in particular the Telugu industry in Hyderabad, rolled out several big-budget blockbusters laden with special effects and major stars. Kapoor says the market has become increasingly polarised since the pandemic and the rise of streaming – audiences will only turn out at theatres for the biggest titles. “What we’ve seen is that the contribution of the top ten films continues to increase. Before the pandemic it was around 35-35% but now it’s closer to 50%. So for any particular language to work, you need a sizeable number of films in the top ten,” Kapoor says.
Mid-Range Blues & The Rise Of Franchises
Many industry pundits have blamed Bollywood producers for being too hasty in selling their films to streaming platforms during the pandemic – while the South Indian industries took a punt on theatrical release even when cinema occupancy was low. But Kapoor says another factor is the Hindi industry’s move towards story and concept-driven cinema aimed at urban multiplex audiences, which started in the early 2010s. Those are the kinds of films that audiences now expect to watch at home or have replaced with series.
“Until 2019, there was a long tail of mid-range Hindi films, which were not really blockbusters or event films, but which collectively contributed a sizable amount to box office,” says Kapoor. “Now we’re seeing less of that kind of cinema – there’s fewer of them, and they’re not always working, and that reflects the lack of confidence the industry has in what they should be making.”
But Kapoor adds that not even the Hindi big-budget star vehicles are the sure bet they once were. Shar Rukh Khan is still golden, but some titles with Salman Khan, Aamir Khan and Akshay Kumar have under-performed or just flopped in the past few years.
In contrast, the Tamil and Telugu industries still each have four or five big stars who are passionately supported by fans and guarantee box office. That also reflects the fact that cinema-going in South India is still more focused on single screen cinemas and producers have not developed the same kind of urban, multiplex-style cinema that became popular in the North (although the Tamil industry makes many successful mid-range, story-driven films, case in point is Amaran which entered last year’s Top 15 with $30m).
Kapoor also points out that some of the most successful Hindi films in the past few years have been franchise-driven, rather than star-driven. Maddock Films, the studio behind Stree 2 and Munjya, recently announced a slate of eight films in its horror comedy and superhero universe, most of which will not feature big stars. Similarly, Yash Raj Films is developing a ‘Spy Universe’, although that does involve big names such as Shah Rukh Khan, Salman Khan and Hrithik Roshan.
“More people are taking the franchise route because it’s more economically viable,” Kapoor says. “If you build a strong franchise, you don’t need to pay huge fees for the stars and you’re developing your own IP.”
Malayalam cinema outgrosses Hollywood
Malayalam-language cinema, from the South Indian state of Kerala, was the dark horse at the Indian box office in 2024, doubling its market share from 5% in 2023 to 10% in 2024, and surpassing the Rs10BN ($116M) mark for the first time. Survival thriller Manjummel Boys was the biggest Malayalam film of the year, grossing $19.8m.
“In the first half of the year, there was a big Malayalam film released nearly every weekend. And not unlike Tamil cinema, it’s more story-driven and not very star dependent,” Kapoor observes. “Each successful film was a different genre so it’s not just action films with big stars that are working.”
As a result of this growth, Malayalam cinema had a larger market share than US studio titles in 2024. Hollywood has never had more than a 15% share of the Indian market, but last year fell back to 8% with a reduced film supply following the pandemic and 2023 strikes. Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King and Deadpool & Wolverine were the only titles to enter the Top 15, grossing $20.6m and $18.5m respectively.
However, Kapoor is optimistic about the future of Hollywood and other international cinema in India: “Hollywood has traditionally been regarded as spectacle cinema in India and we’ve seen fewer of those Avengers level movies in recent years. But Mufasa has done around the same level of business as The Lion King, so the audience is still in place. If anything, interest in international content is growing because streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon are exposing people to all kinds of content.”
And while Malayalam cinema is punching through, Kapoor notes that it can only grow so big because Kerala is a relatively small market (the state has a population of 35 million, while the combined Telugu heartlands of Andra Pradesh and Telengana have around 85 million). “From a scalability point of view, Malayalam cinema can’t possibly be as big as Tamil and Telugu, because the number of people it's addressing is smaller. But it was the only major language that grew in 2024, as Telugu was up just 4%, and Tamil had a decline of around 7%.”
Declining Admissions & Rising Ticket Prices
With audiences only turning up for the big titles, it comes as no surprise that admissions are falling. Ormax’s report reveals that admissions fell to 883 million in 2024, a 6% decline compared to 2023 and a worrying 14% lower than the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Any stability in the market has been achieved by rising ticket prices, with average prices standing at Rs134 in 2024, similar to Rs130 in 2023, but 26% higher than the Rs106 average in 2019.
“We’re now operating at the same level of footfalls as 2013, which shows that people are losing the habit of going to theatres,” says Kapoor, adding that this is also the trend in the traditionally movie-mad South Indian markets. “For such a big country, with a population of 1.4 billion, only 15% of Indians are going to theatres even once a year.”
For this reason, Kapoor says it would make more sense to work on improving the supply of content rather than expanding the screen count to grow the overall market. “Average cinema occupancy is low, twenty something percent, and you need around 30-35% to break even, so the idea of opening new cinemas is in itself a risky proposition. What we need is more films that connect with the audience rather than more theatres right now.”
Upcoming Bollywood Film Slate
Looking ahead, it’s not clear how many Hindi tentpole titles will be released in 2025. Salman Khan has action thriller Sikandar, releasing March 28 over his traditional holiday slot of Eid, but his films since the pandemic have not been the guaranteed hits they were previously. The next installment in the YRF Spy Universe, War 2, starring Hrithik Roshan and directed by Ayan Mukerji, is scheduled for August and looks promising. Shah Rukh Khan is working on King, directed by Siddharth Anand, but it may not be ready for release this year.
What the market really needs this year is a more steady supply of second tier titles, and for those films to consistently work at the box office. Kapoor observes that this is what happened with Malayalam cinema in the first half of last year and would be a welcome boost for Hindi cinema in 2025. “Perhaps what’s needed is more back-to-back successes, rather than just a few huge films, because at some stage, you need to get audiences back to theatres to watch that mid-budget range of cinema.”
INDIA TOP 15 BOX OFFICE 2024:
Title (Language) US$ gross (Rupees gross)
1.Pushpa 2: The Rule (Telugu) $162.1m (Rs14.03bn)
2.Kalki 2898 AD (Telugu) $89.66m (Rs7.76bn)
3.Stree 2 (Hindi) $80.64m (Rs6.98bn)
4.Devara - Part 1 (Telugu) $40.09m (Rs3.47bn)
5.Bhool Bhulaiyaa 3 (Hindi) $35.93m (Rs3.11bn)
6.The Greatest Of All Time (Tamil) $35.24m (Rs3.05bn)
7.Singham Again (Hindi) $34.31m (Rs2.97bn)
8.Amaran (Tamil) $29.81m (Rs2.58bn)
9.Fighter (Hindi) $28.08m (Rs2.43bn)
10.Hanu-Man (Telugu) $27.73m (Rs2.4bn)
11.Mufasa: The Lion King (US) $20.57m (Rs1.78bn)
12.Shaitaan (Hindi) $20.57m (Rs1.78bn)
13.Vettaiyan (Tamil) $20.1m (Rs1.74bn)
14.Manjummel Boys (Malayalam) $19.64m (Rs1.7bn)
15.Deadpool & Wolverine (US) $18.49m (Rs1.6bn)
Source: Ormax Media
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